Monday, April 23, 2018

Participation in VET Predicted to Drop to 1.4% by 2030

Projected participation
by Noonan and Pilcher (2018).
Participation in Vocational Education and Training (VET) in Australia is predicted to drop from the current 4.3% to 1.4% by 2030, while university participation is expected to remain at the current 4.9% of the population. This is in a recent study by Noonan and Pilcher (2018) from the Mitchell Institute at Victoria University.

The study has some limitations. One is that while noting postgraduate qualifications "are increasingly required for entry to many professions" they are not included in the study (Noonan & Pilcher, p. 4, 2018). A limitation not noted by the authors is that they have assumed other sub-degree qualifications (certificates, Diplomas and Advanced Diplomas) are only offered by the VET sector. I suggest there is likely to be increasing use of sub-degree university qualifications, as a way for government and students to stretch the education budget.

The study assumes that current government policies and practices are unchanged. This is unlikely as the current situation is unsustainable. The VET sector is in a state of near collapse, due to state and federal mismanagement. University budgets are being propped up by international student fees which could come to an end at any time.


P. Noonan and S. Pilcher, Participation in tertiary education in Australia: Modelling and scenario analysis,
Mitchell Institute, 2018. URL

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