Has Australia passed peak degree?

Andrew Norton

Could Australia have reached, or passed, peak degree? Andrew Norton has asked why demand for mature age undergraduate education is shrinking. Perhaps we have passed the point where everyone who needs a degree has one.

If employers instead demand specific skills, which can be evidenced by industry or VET certifications, or by a direct AI administered test, will university qualifications be as important?

This week I ran a mentoring circle for computing interns as part of their degree program. One student could not attend as they had a job interview. So I asked them to write a paragraph about their experience. Last time I had a job interview this involved a panel of three people asking me questions for about 30 minutes: one HR expert, one technical specialist and one from the client area. But the student recounted a multi hour battery of tests, where they had to write computer code and solve problems. This was just one phase of a multi-step process. They reflected there were several areas they needed to study up on. That they were also about to get a degree from a world leading university would also count, but it was those tests which would decide if they got the job.

Andrew suggested that more bachelor-degree graduates increases the market for postgraduate study. However, universities don't require a first degree to enroll for a second. A few months ago I was in a meeting of the board which sets education standards for my profession in Australia. During a break we were discussing our own educational paths. We each though we were unusual because we had gone straight to postgraduate study without a bachelor's degree. However, we all had done this. 

Proposals to decouple learning from qualifications due to tech are not new

Miriam Reynoldson

Digital learning specialist Miriam Reynoldson has written a thoughtful article on how universities should change in response to AI. However, proposals to decouple learning from qualifications are prompted by each new technology in education. This happened with paper based correspondence courses, radio & TV education, the Internet and now AI. Each time promoters of the tech say that learning can be made cheap (or free), available to all. Each time the early promise is not realized and traditional education institutions incorporate and bureaucratize the process.

Universities are not the only places learning and qualification are done. In terms of the needs of society they are perhaps the least important. The vocational education and training (VET) sector keeps the lights on, literally, by training our electricians. That sector has long separated learning from qualifications.

Because lives depend on having competent technicians, grades in the VET sector are not quantified, aggregated or averaged. To receive a qualification, the student must pass each and every test, which is binary: either they are not yet competent (fail) or are competent (pass). Until the student can pass every test, they don't graduate. Doing exceptionally well in something doesn't count for anything.

Immediately after completing a Graduate Certificate in Higher Education at the Australian National University, I enrolled in the VET equivalent, a Certificate IV in Training and Assessment at Canberra Institute of Technology. There were some similarities. In each case I could receive credit for prior learning and experience gained in the workplace (RPL). However, at university the RPL is limited, and at a coarse course level of granularity.

At VET every little skill is separately evaluated for RPL and this can be for your entire qualification so you need do no courses. I obtained 80% of my VET qualification by RPL. But this is unusually high, as I had just completed a university qualification in education, had a decade of experience teaching, and had headed my profession's national learning unit.

There are also industry certifications which have assessment but no learning component. Major computer companies have certifications in specialized skills. Whole industries have grown up providing students with preparations for these tests. Some universities and VET institutions integrate preparation for these tests into their curricular.

It is difficult to untangle the purposes of learning. As an example, I enrolled in video production for training at ACT TAFE (which CIT used to be called). This was because I wanted to learn to make training videos. At the end I was surprised to be handed a certificate, as I didn't know this was a formal program and I had been assessed.

While I have referred to VET, vocational elements of university programs have some of the same assessment principles. There are knowledge and skills which every professional need and accreditation required that each and every graduate has these.

Separating permission to practice from the learning and teaching at universities would plunge them into a much deeper crisis. If the university is not undertaking one of its key role: providing trained professionals, there will be little reason to find them, or for students to enroll. Universities emphasize the value of their graduates to the economy as, apart from research, that is all they have to offer.

My preferred approach would be for school graduates to undertake the minimum of VET training to get a job. We they find a field they like they would do more VET training, if needed up to the degree level. If they needed more education they would enroll at university. If they showed exceptional ability, this could be at the doctoral level. 

Quantum AI for Defence at ANU

Dr. Nils Herrmann, 
 Quantum Brilliance

Greetings from the Australian National University where Dr. Nils Herrmann, from Quantum Brilliance is talking on Quantum Machine Learning on Diamond-based Quantum Computers. Quantum Brilliance is an Australia/German startup building quantum computers using diamond microchips. Their Canberra research center ios at the ANU. What got my attention, and probably did of governments and funders, is using the quantum effect for machine learning. Nils envisions a large quantum computer using training data and then a quantum computer on a plug in board in a desktop computer using the model created. The aim is to have a board rugged enough to be used in an aircraft, with obvious military applications. 

"This talk introduces the concept of Quantum Utility - Quantum Brilliance’s vision for practical quantum advantage - and presents early gate-based QML results achieved on an on-site, room-temperature quantum computer. It then highlights the work of the newly formed Quantum Utility and Exploration (QUTE) team, whose mission is to uncover utility through control modes that operate closer to the physical diamond-based hardware. The talk concludes with an introduction to quantum reservoir computing, showcasing QUTE’s latest simulations on future single- and multi-NV systems that establish a compelling platform for near-term, practical quantum machine learning."

New Canberra Institute of Technology Building

One of Canberra Institute of Technology's new TV studios.
Photo by Tom Worthington, CC-BY, 21 August 2025

Yesterday I had a tour of Canberra Institute of Technology's (CIT) new building in Canberra.  I studied Audio-Visual Video (for training) at what was then the ACT TAFE in 1989 (my last assignment was "Bicycles"). I enrolled again in 2013, at what was then called CIT, for a Certificate IV in Training and Assessment. When I studied video, we used magnetic tape and monochrome studio cameras, so It was a revelation to see the new building. CIT will be showcasing the building and its courses, Thursday 11 September (book online). 

CIT in Woden, 
Photo by Tom Worthington, CC-BY, 21 August 2025

CIT's new building is similar in feeling to Ngee Ann and Temasek Polytechnics in Singapore, which I toured in 2024. There are no lecture theatres, as found in old style institutions. There are some general purpose classrooms, but much of the space is used for specialist teaching rooms. Some of the specialist rooms look like a classroom but with  equipment added for each student to use. Other spaces look like the workplaces the students plan to work in. The chefs learn in a state of the art kitchen (all electric: no gas). The bar staff learn in a bar, restaurant staff in a restaurant, musicians in a recording studio, hairdressers in a salon and video producers in a TV studio. 

Recycling bins at CIT. 
Photo by Tom Worthington, CC-BY, 21 August 2025

The CIT building has one large multipurpose space, which can be used for large scale teaching, events, and musical performances. The spaces between the specialist areas are given over to places where students can sit together to study and work on projects. The building is unusually quiet, in part due to the acoustic panels on walls and lack of a false ceiling. There is the most complicated set of recycling bins I have ever seen: do they really need bins for X-ray and file alarm recycling? ;-) 

There is technology woven into the fabric of the CIT building, but not in an obtrusive way. The classrooms are equipped with the usual digital displays, cameras and video conferencing. But so are booths for small groups of students in the common areas. The large multipurpose space has a huge projection screen which can be lowered to cover one wall. Less obvious are remote control cameras around the room. Throughout the building there are CoWs (Computers on Wheels), which can be positioned to turn anywhere into a learning space.

Lego Cyber Range at CIT Woden, 
Photo by Tom Worthington, CC-BY, 21 August 2025

The cybersecurity teaching area has an unusual cyber range. This is a simulation of the Internet used for practicing detecting and defeating hacking attacks. The cyber range's network is isolated from the public Internet so that no harm is accidently caused to real systems. A cyber range is usually a very abstract place, only existing online. CIT have made an effort to make it more real with a large Lego City layout, depicting part of Canberra. Students can see the effect a cyber attack has on the Lego light rail, public buildings, and airport.

Universities are currently going through a painful process working out what their role is and how they can fund their activities. The vocational education and training (VET) sector doesn't have this problem, as their role is clear and they have always had difficulties with funding. There are some challenging questions for CIT and similar large VET institutions: will universities cooperate with them and leave a role for them, or should they offer their own degrees? Students in the past would undertake a diploma or advanced diploma in VET, and then seek credit towards a university degree. However, universities are now seeking to provide more short and flexible training, encroaching on VET territory. Should VET institutions respond by offering their own vocational degrees?

McCusker Institute on ‘Shared Prosperity

Greetings from the McCusker Institute at the Australian National University in Canberra. Dr Katherine Trebeck, Economic Change Program Director at The Next Economy, is speaking on ‘Shared Prosperity: the economy we have, the one we need and what we can do to make it better’. This is at a university, so there are slides with references. But the message about the distribution of wealth. At the same time business leaders are talking to government, a few I'm away l. 

Katherine brought the issue by pointing to University of Technology Sydney referring staff being made redundant to stress relief advice. 

The solutions to some intractable problems seem so simple. We can reverse global warming with a carbon tax. Poverty can be eliminated by removing tax breaks for the rich to fund welfare. The solutions are easy but how do we incentivise to do this? 

As a retirement age person who owns the home I live in, with imputed shares and a tax free super balance, I feel guilty. I understand previous governments bribed older voters, but this has reached absurdly generous levels. Couldn't we add "average" to the tax breaks? So the average home, share dividends and super balance would get tax breaks. 

Katherine is presenting examples of companies with a social conscious. However, are these companies funding lobbyists to go to government and demand to pay more tax. 

I suggest universities can help. However, they need to also address their internal inequalities. A meritocracy doesn't have to be winner-takes-all. Only one of Australia's universities is a foreign owned for-profit company. The rest don't need to be run like a caraciture of 19th century capitalism. There are other models which combine academic traditions and social enterprise enterpurship. 

I am a member of my professional body, which employs people to get our views in front of policymakers. Many groups can't afford this, but perhaps students of politics, business and related disciplines could do this for their work experience.

New Australian University Promoting On-line Degrees

University of Adelaide advertisement,
Parramatta Road, Sydney,
Photo by Tom Worthington, 9 August 2025

Adelaide University, formed from University South Australia and University of Adelaide, is promoting it's online education. The 'launch from anywhere" campaign appears on a bus shelter in a main street in Sydney, as well as on social media. This bus stop is on Parramatta Road, which fronts three universities (Sydney, UTS and Notre Dame). It is a daring move for one of Australia's leading universities to promote e-learning  and so close to major campuses. Would those a short bus ride from established universities choose to study online, at a university 1,000km away?

Adelaide is also home to Torrens University, the Australian arm of a multinational online learning provider. However, while Torrens has elearning as its core business (supplemented with campuses across Australia), Adelaide University was formed from two conventional campus based institutions. Australia's capital city research universities have tended to keep their online offerings low key, for fear of being seen as low quality. Universities run occasional weird e-learning TV advertisements, or provide e-learning at arms length though Open Universities Australia.

The campaign is aimed at Australians, with international students being excluded. Student visas ban fully online study. However a student who is in another country, and doesn't visit Australia doesn't need a visa. They could complete a degree online without leaving home. I did this 2013 to 2016, studying in Canada, from Canberra.

It may be that Adelaide University has judged offshore students would not be willing to pay full fees. In contrast domestic online students pay the same fees as on campus students. When studying online at an Australian university 1,000 km away I was a little annoyed I was paying for the upkeep of playing fields I never used, or saw. ;-)

Developing a national sovereign AI strategy

For the first time in a long time this week I missed the launch of the annual Australia’s Digital Pulse, by the Australian Computer Society at the National Press Club (earlier in the day I twisted my knee running for a bus). The report has 10 recommendations. My comments on some:

1. Develop a national sovereign AI strategy: The ACS is calling for a "long-term vision for sovereign AI development". However, I suggest this should be looking for short term measures. If Australia looks to the long term the strategy will be out of date before it can be implemented. As I suggested for the ACT Government last week, we can look to countries such as Singapore, for mature AI strategies to emulate.
   
   
2. Develop an innovation strategy: The Australian Government is to release a "Strategic Examination of Research and Development", this year. Aligning workforce readiness with innovation by encouraging entrepreneurship is my day job. Government can do more to support startups and scaleups. One area is for defence, where the nation needs new capabilities quickly. Cancelling a few failed big ticket defence projects reliant on overseas suppliers could provide thousands of billions of dollars for local innovation.
   
   
3. Government co-investment in scaleups: Not so sure about this recommendation, as it sounds dangerously like government trying to pick winners. Apart from strategically important areas, such as defence, energy security and availability of vaccines, government should avoid direct investment in scaleups, as they are really, really bad at it. 
4. Greater incentives for R&D in AI and tech adoption by businesses: ACS point out there is a skills gap in the use of AI by business. The obvious solution, I suggest, is training. Many of the computer project students I teach are planning to work in AI. To them it is not new and exotic, just a tool they are very familiar with. We need vocational education programs which similarly give business people a deep understanding of AI. 
5. Executives take a digital skills health check: Rather than trying to get C-suite leaders up to scratch on digital capabilities, I suggest political parties, government agencies and company boards need to hire more technocrats. We need some digital professionals running the nation and corporations, not just lawyers who learned a bit about computers.
6. Promote entry-level pathways for cybersecurity professionals: ACS point out that we simply can't get enough computer professionals to fill cyber security positions. What we can do is take people qualified in allied fields and train them up. This can be done online with vocational education techniques, rather than in university lecture theatres.
7. Implement an ‘earn while you learn’ scheme: ACS proposes business and government sharing the cost of worker retraining. Unfortunately what has tended to happen is as federal government introduces subsidies for university and vocational education, business and state governments have stopped funding. We have the technology to do the retraining (I spent a decade learning how this works). The problem is to make a watertight agreement on funding which business and states will abide by. Assuming Jobs and Skills Australia release their national skills taxonomy promptly, this can be used (if not someone else can). This can be aligned with the UK based Skills Framework for the Information Age (SFIA), used by ACS. The match will not be perfect. When ACS commissioned me to design a course in Green Computing (way back in 2008), there were no relevant skills in SFIA. I sent SFIA HQ a copy of my course and they added green skills, but that took considerable time.
8. A national commitment to alternative tech pathways: ACS argues for greater trust in vocational qualifications by business. Another approach to this, I suggest, is the use of the Vocational Degrees, added to the Australian Qualifications Framework in February 2025. With this entry level staff can obtain a certificate and then go on to a degree at the same vocational institution. This should give business more comfort as to the depth of training provided.